HOU⇄COL

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net −$6.4M net +1.5

received +$15.2M+$4.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$12.8M realized received 2.9 ± 2 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2001 odds 26% → 31% (+5.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pedro AstacioP·32y·R/R

+$15.4M+$5.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 2.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

1.99/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$6.4M net -1.5

received +$26.4M+$26.4M ± $33M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 4.0 ± 4 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2001 odds 32% → 26% (-5.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott ElartonP·25y·R/R

+$26.3M+$26.3M± $33M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 4.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.35/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.32/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.