OAK⇄CHW

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$6.4M net +1.3

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $25M expected surplus · +$13.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 3.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2001 odds 91% → 92% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chad BradfordP·26y·R/R

+$4.0M+$4.0M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$13.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 3.1

Prior

#377 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net −$6.4M net -1.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2001 odds 25% → 24% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miguel OlivoC·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.