TBR⇄LAD

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$6.4M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2021 odds 85% → 86% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

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LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$6.4M net -0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $13M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2021 odds 97% → 97% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yoshi Tsutsugo1B/DH/OF·29y·L/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.51 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.