ATL⇄CHW

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$0.0M−$0.8M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1991 odds 10% → 10% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Danny HeepOF·33y·L/L

−$0.2M−$1.0M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $32M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1991 odds 39% → 39% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin CastleberrySS·23y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#62 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.