ARI⇄DET

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$373.6M net +34.1

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $15M expected surplus · +$368.8M realized received 2.5 ± 2 expected · 33.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 1999 odds 56% → 85% (+29 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis GonzalezOF·31y·L/R

+$7.0M+$7.0M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$368.8M 2.5± 2 exp WARrealized 33.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.69/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net −$373.6M net -34.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1999 odds 16% → 4% (-12.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Karim GarcíaOF·23y·L/L

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.3/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

-0.83/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.