PIT⇄NYY

PITPIT Neal Huntington net +$1.6M net +2.1

received +$24.0M+$24.0M ± $27M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 5.3 ± 3 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2014 odds 31% → 39% (+8.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris StewartC·32y·R/R

+$24.2M+$24.2M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 5.3± 3 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.6/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

1.96/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$1.6M net -2.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2014 odds 25% → 19% (-6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyle HaynesP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#616 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.