PIT⇄CHW

PITPIT Ben Cherington net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $61M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.9 ± 8 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2026 odds 26.6% → 26.8% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jacob GonzalezSS·24y·L/R

+$9.7M+$9.7M± $56M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.3± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#15 overall draft pick → 0.63/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Brandon EisertP·28y·L/L

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.48 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Chris Getz net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $56M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 7 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2026 odds 29.8% → 29.5% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jaden WoodsP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $56M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#197 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (Baseball America rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Historically these expected values are unbiased and land within ±2 WAR of reality 75% of the time — yet the side the model favors actually comes out ahead only 53% of the time. The grade is a calibrated bet, not a prediction. Why trades are an efficient market →