ATL⇄ANA

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net +$3.2M net +0.6

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2026 odds 14.1% → 15.0% (+0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Victor MederosP·25y·R/R

+$8.9M+$8.9M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

#178 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.4/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Perry Minasian net −$3.2M net -0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.