Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | 1.1 | DET | Spencer Torkelson | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 220 | $8.42M | 60% | Scott Pleis | Al Avila | 2.9 | -5.7 | 40.2±3.9 |
| 2020 | 2 | 1.2 | BAL | Heston Kjerstad | OF LF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 215 | $5.2M | 38% | — | Mike Elias | -0.7 | -8.8 | 23.5±4.2 |
| 2020 | 3 | 1.3 | MIA | Max Meyer | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 196 | $6.7M | 56% | — | Michael Hill | 1.5 | -3.2 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 2020 | 4 | 1.4 | KCR | Asa Lacy | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'4" | 215 | $6.67M | 53% | — | Dayton Moore | 0.0 | -4.7 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 2020 | 5 | 1.5 | TOR | Austin Martin | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 185 | $7.0M | 69% | Shane Farrell | Ross Atkins | 1.6 | -6.4 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 2020 | 6 | 1.6 | SEA | Emerson Hancock | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 213 | $5.7M | 57% | — | Jerry Dipoto | 0.7 | -4.0 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2020 | 7 | 1.7 | PIT | Nick Gonzales | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'8" | 193 | $5.43M | 49% | Joe Dellicarri | Ben Cherington | 3.3 | -2.1 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1.8 | SDP | Robert Hassell III | OF CF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 186 | $4.3M | 38% | Mark Conner | AJ Preller | -0.5 | -2.2 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 2020 | 9 | 1.9 | COL | Zac Veen | OF LF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 243 | $5.0M | 48% | — | Jeff Bridich | -0.3 | -2.0 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 2020 | 10 | 1.10 | ANA | Reid Detmers | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 210 | $4.67M | 72% | Matt Swanson | Billy Eppler | 7.9 | +3.2 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2020 | 11 | 1.11 | CHW | Garrett Crochet | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'6" | 245 | $4.55M | 59% | Garrett Guest | Kenny Williams | 12.2 | +8.3 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2020 | 12 | 1.12 | CIN | Austin Hendrick | OF OF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'0" | 204 | $4.0M | 47% | Brad Meador | Nick Krall | 0.0 | -1.7 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2020 | 13 | 1.13 | SFG | Patrick Bailey | C C | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'0" | 223 | $3.8M | 40% | Michael Holmes | Farhan Zaidi | 10.0 | +4.6 | 17.0±4.1 |
| 2020 | 14 | 1.14 | TEX | Justin Foscue | IF 2B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 205 | $3.25M | 45% | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | -0.5 | -5.0 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2020 | 15 | 1.15 | PHI | Mick Abel | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 190 | $4.08M | 71% | Brian Barber | Ned Rice | 0.6 | -1.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2020 | 16 | 1.16 | CHC | Ed Howard | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 185 | $3.75M | 55% | Dan Kantrovitz | Jed Hoyer | 0.0 | -1.0 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2020 | 17 | 1.17 | BOS | Nick Yorke | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 220 | $2.7M | 51% | Paul Toboni | Chaim Bloom | -0.2 | -1.2 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2020 | 18 | 1.18 | ARI | Bryce Jarvis | P P | 23 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 195 | $2.65M | 37% | — | Mike Hazen | -0.7 | -3.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2020 | 19 | 1.19 | NYM | Pete Crow-Armstrong | OF CF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'0" | 184 | $3.36M | 45% | Marc Tramuta | Brodie Van Wagenen | 9.5 | +7.8 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2020 | 20 | 1.20 | MIL | Garrett Mitchell | OF CF | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 229 | $3.24M | 60% | — | David Stearns | 3.6 | +1.7 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2020 | 21 | 1.21 | STL | Jordan Walker | OF RF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 250 | $2.9M | 35% | Charles Peterson | John Mozeliak | 1.2 | -0.5 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2020 | 22 | 1.22 | WSN | Cade Cavalli | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 223 | $3.03M | 46% | — | Michael Rizzo | 1.4 | -1.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2020 | 23 | 1.23 | CLE | Carson Tucker | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 180 | $2.0M | 27% | Scott Barnsby | Chris Antonetti | 0.0 | -1.0 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2020 | 24 | 1.24 | TBR | Nick Bitsko | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 225 | $3.0M | 40% | Rob Metzler | Erik Neander | 0.0 | -1.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2020 | 25 | 1.25 | ATL | Jared Shuster | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 220 | $2.2M | 55% | Dana Brown | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.5 | -2.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2020 | 26 | 1.26 | OAK | Tyler Soderstrom | OF LF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 200 | $3.3M | 61% | Eric Kubota | David Forst | 2.7 | +2.1 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2020 | 27 | 1.27 | MIN | Aaron Sabato | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 230 | $2.75M | 64% | Sean Johnson | Derek Falvey | 0.0 | -1.1 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2020 | 28 | 1.28 | NYY | Austin Wells | C C | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 220 | $2.5M | 68% | — | Brian Cashman | 7.1 | +5.4 | 2.0±3.8 |
| 2020 | 29 | 1.29 | LAD | Bobby Miller | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'5" | 220 | $2.2M | 35% | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 2.0 | +0.8 | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.