Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1 | 1.1 | BAL | Adley Rutschman | C C | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'1" | 230 | $8.1M | 53% | — | Mike Elias | 16.4 | -0.6 | 28.2±3.7 |
| 2019 | 2 | 1.2 | KCR | Bobby Witt Jr. | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 200 | $7.79M | 54% | — | Dayton Moore | 30.0 | +20.9 | 18.9±4.1 |
| 2019 | 3 | 1.3 | CHW | Andrew Vaughn | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 215 | $7.22M | 54% | Nick Hostetler | Kenny Williams | 0.4 | -10.4 | 21.5±3.9 |
| 2019 | 4 | 1.4 | MIA | JJ Bleday | OF LF | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 205 | $6.67M | 47% | D J Svihlik | Michael Hill | 4.2 | -7.4 | 23.5±3.7 |
| 2019 | 5 | 1.5 | DET | Riley Greene | OF LF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 200 | $6.18M | 52% | Scott Pleis | Al Avila | 12.0 | +7.9 | 8.0±4.1 |
| 2019 | 6 | 1.6 | SDP | CJ Abrams | IF SS | 19 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 191 | $5.2M | 41% | Kurt Kemp | AJ Preller | 8.7 | -0.3 | 18.9±3.9 |
| 2019 | 7 | 1.7 | CIN | Nick Lodolo | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'6" | 216 | $5.43M | 49% | Brad Meador | Nick Krall | 6.5 | +1.1 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2019 | 8 | 1.8 | TEX | Josh Jung | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 214 | $4.4M | 36% | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 6.3 | +0.1 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 2019 | 9 | 1.9 | ATL | Shea Langeliers | C C | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 205 | $4.0M | 30% | Dana Brown | Alex Anthopoulos | 9.1 | +2.5 | 17.0±4.2 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1.10 | SFG | Hunter Bishop | OF OF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 210 | $4.1M | 40% | Michael Holmes | Farhan Zaidi | 0.0 | -5.4 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2019 | 11 | 1.11 | TOR | Alek Manoah | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 285 | $4.55M | 43% | Steve Sanders | Ross Atkins | 5.4 | +0.7 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2019 | 12 | 1.12 | NYM | Brett Baty | IF 3B | 20 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 210 | $3.9M | 42% | Marc Tramuta | Brodie Van Wagenen | 2.3 | -3.4 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2019 | 13 | 1.13 | MIN | Keoni Cavaco | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 195 | $4.05M | 37% | Sean Johnson | Derek Falvey | 0.0 | -2.3 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2019 | 14 | 1.14 | PHI | Bryson Stott | IF 2B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 200 | $3.9M | 45% | Johnny Almaraz | Matt Klentak | 11.0 | +5.2 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2019 | 15 | 1.15 | ANA | Will Wilson | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'9" | 184 | $3.4M | 39% | Matt Swanson | Billy Eppler | -0.4 | -6.1 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2019 | 16 | 1.16 | ARI | Corbin Carroll | OF RF | 19 HS | L/L | 5'10" | 165 | $3.75M | 22% | Deric Ladnier | Mike Hazen | 19.9 | +17.4 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2019 | 17 | 1.17 | WSN | Jackson Rutledge | P P | 20 COLL | R/R | 6'8" | 241 | $3.45M | 45% | — | Michael Rizzo | -0.3 | -3.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2019 | 18 | 1.18 | PIT | Quinn Priester | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 224 | $3.4M | 28% | Joe Dellicarri | Neal Huntington | 1.4 | -0.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2019 | 19 | 1.19 | STL | Zack Thompson | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 215 | $3.0M | 37% | — | John Mozeliak | 0.9 | -2.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2019 | 20 | 1.20 | SEA | George Kirby | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | $3.24M | 36% | — | Jerry Dipoto | 14.8 | +11.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2019 | 21 | 1.21 | ATL | Braden Shewmake | IF SS | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 200 | $3.13M | 23% | Dana Brown | Alex Anthopoulos | -0.6 | -5.4 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2019 | 22 | 1.22 | TBR | Greg Jones | OF LF | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'0" | 189 | $3.02M | 26% | Rob Metzler | Erik Neander | -0.3 | -2.5 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | 1.23 | COL | Michael Toglia | IF 1B | 21 COLL | S/L | 6'5" | 226 | $2.73M | 34% | — | Jeff Bridich | -3.0 | -7.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2019 | 24 | 1.24 | CLE | Daniel Espino | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 225 | $2.5M | 31% | Scott Barnsby | Chris Antonetti | 0.0 | -1.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | 1.25 | LAD | Kody Hoese | IF 3B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | $2.74M | 28% | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -4.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2019 | 26 | 1.26 | ARI | Blake Walston | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'5" | 175 | $2.45M | 14% | Deric Ladnier | Mike Hazen | -0.2 | -1.3 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2019 | 27 | 1.27 | CHC | Ryan Jensen | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | $2.0M | 29% | Matt Dorey | Jed Hoyer | 0.0 | -1.4 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | 1.28 | MIL | Ethan Small | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 219 | $1.8M | 28% | — | David Stearns | -0.1 | -1.5 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | 1.29 | OAK | Logan Davidson | IF 1B | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'3" | 185 | $2.42M | 36% | Eric Kubota | David Forst | -0.6 | -2.2 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2019 | 30 | 1.30 | NYY | Anthony Volpe | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 5'10" | 197 | $2.74M | 31% | — | Brian Cashman | 6.7 | +5.2 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2019 | 31 | 1.31 | LAD | Michael Busch | IF 1B | 22 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 210 | $2.31M | 24% | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 6.1 | +4.5 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2019 | 32 | 1.32 | HOU | Korey Lee | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 225 | $1.75M | 27% | — | Jeff Luhnow | -1.5 | -3.2 | 2.0±3.8 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.