Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 1 | 1.1 | ARI | Justin Upton | OF LF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 215 | — | — | Mike Rizzo | Bob Gebhard | 35.4 | +1.0 | 34.3±4.1 |
| 2005 | 2 | 1.2 | KCR | Alex Gordon | OF LF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Allard Baird | 31.4 | +7.9 | 23.5±4.2 |
| 2005 | 3 | 1.3 | SEA | Jeff Clement | IF 1B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Bill Bavasi | -0.5 | -22.0 | 21.5±3.9 |
| 2005 | 4 | 1.4 | WSN | Ryan Zimmerman | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Dana Brown | Jim Bowden | 39.1 | +17.5 | 21.5±4.1 |
| 2005 | 5 | 1.5 | MIL | Ryan Braun | OF LF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Douglas Melvin | 43.8 | +20.3 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 2005 | 6 | 1.6 | TOR | Ricky Romero | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'1" | 210 | — | — | Jon Lalonde | JP Ricciardi | 8.6 | +0.7 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2005 | 7 | 1.7 | COL | Troy Tulowitzki | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 37.8 | +23.0 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2005 | 8 | 1.8 | TBR | Wade Townsend | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Chuck Lamar | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2005 | 9 | 1.9 | NYM | Mike Pelfrey | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'7" | 240 | — | — | — | Omar Minaya | 13.1 | +5.2 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2005 | 10 | 1.10 | DET | Cameron Maybin | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | David Chadd | Dave Dombrowski | 15.0 | +7.0 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 2005 | 11 | 1.11 | PIT | Andrew McCutchen | DH DH | 19 HS | R/R | 5'10" | 190 | — | — | Ed Creech | Dave Littlefield | 48.6 | +16.9 | 31.7±4.2 |
| 2005 | 12 | 1.12 | CIN | Jay Bruce | OF RF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 230 | — | — | Terry Reynolds | Dan O'Brien | 20.8 | +12.9 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2005 | 13 | 1.13 | BAL | Brandon Snyder | IF 1B | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Joe Jordan | Jim Beattie | 0.3 | -7.5 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2005 | 14 | 1.14 | CLE | Trevor Crowe | OF CF | 22 COLL | S/R | 5'10" | 190 | — | — | John Mirabelli | Mark Shapiro | -0.9 | -5.2 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2005 | 15 | 1.15 | CHW | Lance Broadway | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Kenny Williams | 0.5 | -7.4 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2005 | 16 | 1.16 | MIA | Chris Volstad | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'8" | 235 | — | — | — | Larry Beinfest | 2.6 | -2.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2005 | 17 | 1.17 | NYY | C.J. Henry | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2005 | 18 | 1.18 | SDP | Cesar Carrillo | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 170 | — | — | Bill Gayton | Kevin Towers | -0.6 | -6.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2005 | 19 | 1.19 | TEX | John Mayberry Jr. | OF CF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 235 | — | — | Ron Hopkins | John Hart | 2.3 | -2.1 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2005 | 20 | 1.20 | CHC | Mark Pawelek | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 190 | — | — | John Stockstill | Jim Hendry | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2005 | 21 | 1.21 | OAK | Cliff Pennington | IF SS | 21 COLL | S/R | 5'10" | 200 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 7.1 | -3.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2005 | 22 | 1.22 | MIA | Aaron Thompson | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | — | Larry Beinfest | 0.2 | -5.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2005 | 23 | 1.23 | BOS | Jacoby Ellsbury | OF CF | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Jason McLeod | Theo Epstein | 30.1 | +25.8 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2005 | 24 | 1.24 | HOU | Brian Bogusevic | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Paul Ricciarini | Tim Purpura | 2.5 | -1.8 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2005 | 25 | 1.25 | MIN | Matt Garza | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 20.9 | +15.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2005 | 26 | 1.26 | BOS | Craig Hansen | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 230 | — | — | Jason McLeod | Theo Epstein | -0.5 | -3.5 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2005 | 27 | 1.27 | ATL | Joey Devine | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 235 | — | — | Roy Clark | John Schuerholz | 1.5 | -1.5 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2005 | 28 | 1.28 | STL | Colby Rasmus | OF CF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 18.0 | +15.7 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2005 | 29 | 1.29 | MIA | Jacob Marceaux | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | — | Larry Beinfest | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2005 | 30 | 1.30 | STL | Tyler Greene | IF 2B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 0.1 | -3.7 | 3.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.