What is Yerlin Luis (CLE, OF) worth in a trade? The model projects $+2.3M of expected surplus over his remaining 6yr of team control. Below: he's pre-loaded on Side A of the simulator — add players, cash, or another team to build a complete trade. Toggle to raw WAR up top.
Surplus = expected WAR over remaining team control × the FA market price of a win, minus the contract cost over those years. The $/WAR is tier-adjusted — empirically, FA signings price elite-tier talent at ~$11-13M/WAR and replacement-level vets at ~$5M, not a flat $8M. So Skenes' WAR is worth more per unit than a 1-WAR utility guy's. How the tiered $/WAR works ↗
Surplus values use the same Bayesian model that grades real trades on the rest of the site — each player's pedigree blended with his recent track record, projected over his remaining team-control years, with an age-curve decline. The model doesn't know about no-trade clauses, opt-outs, or whether a team would actually do the deal. It just prices the value. Use it to settle arguments — or start better ones.