KCR⇄SEA

KCRKCR J.J. Picollo net +$5.6M net +0.7

received +$0.0M−$0.8M ± $1M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2026 odds 3.0% → 3.4% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy DobnakP·31y·R/R

+$0.0M−$0.8M± $1M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.07 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$5.6M net -0.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.