OAK⇄STL

OAKOAK David Forst net +$2.4M net +0.5

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $23M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Scott BlewettP·30y·R/R

+$4.2M+$4.2M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#56 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Chaim Bloom net −$2.4M net -0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.