Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 1 | 1.1 | TBR | Tim Beckham | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 215 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | 2.9 | -47.0 | 49.9±4.0 |
| 2008 | 2 | 1.2 | PIT | Pedro Álvarez | IF 3B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 250 | — | — | Greg Smith | Neal Huntington | 7.6 | -13.9 | 21.5±4.0 |
| 2008 | 3 | 1.3 | KCR | Eric Hosmer | IF 1B | 19 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 226 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Dayton Moore | 11.0 | -8.0 | 18.9±4.2 |
| 2008 | 4 | 1.4 | BAL | Brian Matusz | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'5" | 190 | — | — | Joe Jordan | Andy MacPhail | 4.5 | -5.3 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 2008 | 5 | 1.5 | SFG | Buster Posey | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 213 | — | — | John Barr | Brian Sabean | 57.8 | +33.4 | 24.4±4.2 |
| 2008 | 6 | 1.6 | MIA | Kyle Skipworth | C C | 18 HS | L/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | — | Michael Hill | -0.1 | -12.4 | 12.3±3.7 |
| 2008 | 7 | 1.7 | CIN | Yonder Alonso | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 230 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Wayne Krivsky | 4.7 | -10.2 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2008 | 8 | 1.8 | CHW | Gordon Beckham | IF 2B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 188 | — | — | — | Kenny Williams | 5.5 | -9.3 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 2008 | 9 | 1.9 | WSN | ✕ Aaron Crow | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Dana Brown | Jim Bowden | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2008 | 10 | 1.10 | HOU | Jason Castro | C C | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Bobby Heck | Ed Wade | 15.6 | -1.4 | 17.0±4.2 |
| 2008 | 11 | 1.11 | TEX | Justin Smoak | IF 1B | 22 COLL | S/L | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Ron Hopkins | Jon Daniels | 5.9 | -4.9 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2008 | 12 | 1.12 | TOR | Jemile Weeks | IF 2B | 21 COLL | S/R | 5'9" | 170 | — | — | Jon Lalonde | JP Ricciardi | 1.6 | -9.2 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2008 | 13 | 1.13 | STL | Brett Wallace | IF 1B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 250 | — | — | — | John Mozeliak | -0.8 | -11.6 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2008 | 14 | 1.14 | MIN | Aaron Hicks | OF CF | 19 HS | S/R | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | Deron Johnson | Bill Smith | 11.9 | +3.9 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2008 | 15 | 1.15 | LAD | Ethan Martin | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 225 | — | — | Tim Hallgren | Ned Colletti | -0.5 | -6.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2008 | 16 | 1.16 | MIL | Brett Lawrie | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Douglas Melvin | 9.5 | +6.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2008 | 17 | 1.17 | TOR | David Cooper | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 200 | — | — | Jon Lalonde | JP Ricciardi | -0.1 | -10.9 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2008 | 18 | 1.18 | NYM | Ike Davis | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Rudy Terrasas | Omar Minaya | 5.1 | -5.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2008 | 19 | 1.19 | CHC | Andrew Cashner | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 235 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Jim Hendry | 11.4 | +5.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2008 | 20 | 1.20 | SEA | Josh Fields | P P | 23 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 191 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Lee Pelekoudas | 3.3 | -2.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2008 | 21 | 1.21 | DET | Ryan Perry | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 215 | — | — | David Chadd | Dave Dombrowski | 0.5 | -5.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2008 | 22 | 1.22 | NYM | Reese Havens | IF 2B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Rudy Terrasas | Omar Minaya | 0.0 | -10.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2008 | 23 | 1.23 | SDP | Allan Dykstra | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'5" | 215 | — | — | Bill Gayton | Kevin Towers | -0.3 | -11.1 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2008 | 24 | 1.24 | PHI | Anthony Hewitt | OF RF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Marti Wolever | Pat Gillick | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2008 | 25 | 1.25 | COL | Christian Friedrich | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'4" | 222 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 2.7 | -2.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2008 | 26 | 1.26 | ARI | Daniel Schlereth | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Tom Allison | Josh Byrnes | -0.7 | -3.7 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2008 | 27 | 1.27 | MIN | Carlos Gutierrez | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 230 | — | — | Deron Johnson | Bill Smith | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2008 | 28 | 1.28 | NYY | ✕ Gerrit Cole | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2008 | 29 | 1.29 | CLE | Lonnie Chisenhall | IF 3B | 20 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Brad Grant | Mark Shapiro | 8.0 | +4.1 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2008 | 30 | 1.30 | BOS | Casey Kelly | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Jason McLeod | Theo Epstein | 0.2 | -2.5 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.