Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 1 | 1.1 | TBR | David Price | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'5" | 215 | — | — | R J Harrison | Andrew Friedman | 42.5 | +22.9 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 2007 | 2 | 1.2 | KCR | Mike Moustakas | IF 3B | 19 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 230 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Dayton Moore | 15.6 | -3.3 | 18.9±4.1 |
| 2007 | 3 | 1.3 | CHC | Josh Vitters | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Jim Hendry | -1.4 | -20.3 | 18.9±4.2 |
| 2007 | 4 | 1.4 | PIT | Daniel Moskos | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | Ed Creech | Brian Graham | 0.2 | -9.6 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 2007 | 5 | 1.5 | BAL | Matt Wieters | C C | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'5" | 235 | — | — | Joe Jordan | Mike Flanagan | 15.5 | -9.0 | 24.4±4.2 |
| 2007 | 6 | 1.6 | WSN | Ross Detwiler | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'5" | 210 | — | — | Dana Brown | Jim Bowden | 1.5 | -6.4 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2007 | 7 | 1.7 | MIL | Matt LaPorta | IF 1B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Douglas Melvin | -1.3 | -16.1 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 2007 | 8 | 1.8 | COL | Casey Weathers | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2007 | 9 | 1.9 | ARI | Jarrod Parker | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Tom Allison | Josh Byrnes | 5.1 | -0.6 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2007 | 10 | 1.10 | SFG | Madison Bumgarner | P P | 18 HS | R/L | 6'4" | 240 | — | — | Matt Nerland | Brian Sabean | 37.8 | +32.0 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2007 | 11 | 1.11 | SEA | Phillippe Aumont | P P | 18 HS | L/R | 6'7" | 265 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Bill Bavasi | -0.4 | -5.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2007 | 12 | 1.12 | MIA | Matt Dominguez | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | — | Larry Beinfest | -0.8 | -8.5 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2007 | 13 | 1.13 | CLE | Beau Mills | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | John Mirabelli | Mark Shapiro | 0.0 | -10.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2007 | 14 | 1.14 | ATL | Jason Heyward | OF RF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'5" | 240 | — | — | Roy Clark | John Schuerholz | 32.3 | +24.3 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2007 | 15 | 1.15 | CIN | Devin Mesoraco | C C | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 229 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Dan O'Brien | 1.7 | -1.9 | 3.6±4.1 |
| 2007 | 16 | 1.16 | TOR | Kevin Ahrens | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | — | JP Ricciardi | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2007 | 17 | 1.17 | TEX | Blake Beavan | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'7" | 255 | — | — | Ron Hopkins | Jon Daniels | 1.3 | -4.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2007 | 18 | 1.18 | STL | Pete Kozma | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | — | — | — | John Mozeliak | 0.7 | -2.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2007 | 19 | 1.19 | PHI | Joe Savery | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 235 | — | — | Marti Wolever | Pat Gillick | -0.1 | -5.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2007 | 20 | 1.20 | LAD | Chris Withrow | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 240 | — | — | Tim Hallgren | Ned Colletti | -0.2 | -5.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2007 | 21 | 1.21 | TOR | J.P. Arencibia | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 210 | — | — | — | JP Ricciardi | 0.1 | -1.9 | 2.0±3.9 |
| 2007 | 22 | 1.22 | SFG | Tim Alderson | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 220 | — | — | Matt Nerland | Brian Sabean | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2007 | 23 | 1.23 | SDP | Nick Schmidt | P P | 22 COLL | R/L | 6'5" | 245 | — | — | Bill Gayton | Kevin Towers | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2007 | 24 | 1.24 | TEX | Michael Main | OF OF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 170 | — | — | Ron Hopkins | Jon Daniels | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2007 | 25 | 1.25 | CHW | Aaron Poreda | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'6" | 240 | — | — | — | Kenny Williams | 0.1 | -5.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2007 | 26 | 1.26 | OAK | James Simmons | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2007 | 27 | 1.27 | DET | Rick Porcello | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 205 | — | — | David Chadd | Dave Dombrowski | 29.7 | +27.0 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2007 | 28 | 1.28 | MIN | Ben Revere | OF CF | 19 HS | L/R | 5'9" | 175 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 7.8 | +5.4 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2007 | 29 | 1.29 | SFG | Wendell Fairley | OF CF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Matt Nerland | Brian Sabean | 0.0 | -2.4 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 2007 | 30 | 1.30 | NYY | Andrew Brackman | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'10" | 230 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | -0.0 | -3.1 | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.