Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 1 | 1.1 | SDP | Matt Bush | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 5'10" | 193 | — | — | Bill Gayton | Kevin Towers | 2.2 | -16.6 | 18.9±3.8 |
| 2004 | 2 | 1.2 | DET | Justin Verlander | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 240 | — | — | Greg Smith | Dave Dombrowski | 71.6 | +53.8 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 2004 | 3 | 1.3 | NYM | Philip Humber | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Jack Bowen | Jim Duquette | 2.4 | -7.4 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 2004 | 4 | 1.4 | TBR | Jeff Niemann | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'9" | 285 | — | — | — | Chuck Lamar | 6.5 | -3.3 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 2004 | 5 | 1.5 | MIL | Mark Rogers | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 240 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Douglas Melvin | 0.9 | -9.0 | 9.9±3.9 |
| 2004 | 6 | 1.6 | CLE | Jeremy Sowers | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 180 | — | — | John Mirabelli | Mark Shapiro | 2.5 | -5.4 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2004 | 7 | 1.7 | CIN | Homer Bailey | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 223 | — | — | Terry Reynolds | Dan O'Brien | 16.9 | +6.9 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2004 | 8 | 1.8 | BAL | ✕ Wade Townsend | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Jim Beattie | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2004 | 9 | 1.9 | COL | Chris Nelson | IF 3B | 19 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 205 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | -1.9 | -16.2 | 14.3±3.9 |
| 2004 | 10 | 1.10 | TEX | Thomas Diamond | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 250 | — | — | Ron Hopkins | John Hart | -0.1 | -8.0 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2004 | 11 | 1.11 | PIT | Neil Walker | IF 2B | 19 HS | S/R | 6'2" | 214 | — | — | Ed Creech | Dave Littlefield | 20.0 | +12.2 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2004 | 12 | 1.12 | ANA | Jered Weaver | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'7" | 210 | — | — | Eddie Bane | Bill Stoneman | 30.1 | +22.2 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2004 | 13 | 1.13 | WSN | Bill Bray | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Dana Brown | Omar Minaya | 1.3 | -6.6 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2004 | 14 | 1.14 | KCR | Billy Butler | DH DH | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 260 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Allard Baird | 6.3 | -25.4 | 31.7±4.2 |
| 2004 | 15 | 1.15 | ARI | Stephen Drew | IF SS | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 200 | — | — | Mike Rizzo | Joe Garagiola | 14.8 | +4.0 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2004 | 16 | 1.16 | TOR | David Purcey | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'5" | 245 | — | — | Jon Lalonde | JP Ricciardi | 0.9 | -4.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2004 | 17 | 1.17 | LAD | Scott Elbert | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 225 | — | — | Logan White | Dan Evans | 0.5 | -5.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2004 | 18 | 1.18 | CHW | ✕ Josh Fields | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 191 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Kenny Williams | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2004 | 19 | 1.19 | STL | Chris Lambert | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | -0.2 | -5.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2004 | 20 | 1.20 | MIN | Trevor Plouffe | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 5.5 | +2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2004 | 21 | 1.21 | PHI | Greg Golson | OF RF | 19 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 190 | — | — | Marti Wolever | Ed Wade | -0.3 | -8.3 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2004 | 22 | 1.22 | MIN | Glen Perkins | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 7.6 | +2.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2004 | 23 | 1.23 | NYY | Phil Hughes | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 240 | — | — | Lin Garrett | Brian Cashman | 17.5 | +12.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2004 | 24 | 1.24 | OAK | Landon Powell | C C | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'3" | 265 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | -0.3 | -2.3 | 2.0±3.9 |
| 2004 | 25 | 1.25 | MIN | Kyle Waldrop | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 220 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | -0.3 | -5.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2004 | 26 | 1.26 | OAK | Richie Robnett | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/L | 5'10" | 210 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2004 | 27 | 1.27 | MIA | Taylor Tankersley | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | — | Larry Beinfest | -0.6 | -3.6 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2004 | 28 | 1.28 | LAD | Blake DeWitt | IF 2B | 19 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 195 | — | — | Logan White | Dan Evans | 1.9 | -0.9 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2004 | 29 | 1.29 | KCR | Matt Campbell | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 180 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Allard Baird | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2004 | 30 | 1.30 | TEX | Eric Hurley | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 195 | — | — | Ron Hopkins | John Hart | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.