Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 1 | 1.1 | TBR | Delmon Young | OF LF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 240 | — | — | — | Chuck Lamar | -1.4 | -35.7 | 34.3±4.1 |
| 2003 | 2 | 1.2 | MIL | Rickie Weeks Jr. | IF 2B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Douglas Melvin | 18.1 | -3.4 | 21.5±4.0 |
| 2003 | 3 | 1.3 | DET | Kyle Sleeth | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 205 | — | — | Greg Smith | Dave Dombrowski | 0.0 | -9.8 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 2003 | 4 | 1.4 | SDP | Tim Stauffer | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 215 | — | — | Bill Gayton | Kevin Towers | 3.8 | -6.0 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 2003 | 5 | 1.5 | KCR | Chris Lubanski | OF LF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Allard Baird | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±4.1 |
| 2003 | 6 | 1.6 | CHC | Ryan Harvey | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 240 | — | — | John Stockstill | Jim Hendry | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2003 | 7 | 1.7 | BAL | Nick Markakis | OF RF | 20 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 210 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Jim Beattie | 28.2 | +4.7 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 2003 | 8 | 1.8 | PIT | Paul Maholm | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 245 | — | — | Ed Creech | Dave Littlefield | 15.3 | +7.4 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2003 | 9 | 1.9 | TEX | John Danks | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 210 | — | — | Ron Hopkins | John Hart | 17.4 | +11.6 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2003 | 10 | 1.10 | COL | Ian Stewart | IF 3B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 2.1 | -12.2 | 14.3±3.9 |
| 2003 | 11 | 1.11 | CLE | Michael Aubrey | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 190 | — | — | John Mirabelli | Mark Shapiro | 0.0 | -10.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2003 | 12 | 1.12 | NYM | Lastings Milledge | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 210 | — | — | Jack Bowen | Jim Duquette | -0.2 | -8.2 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2003 | 13 | 1.13 | TOR | Aaron Hill | IF 2B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 200 | — | — | — | JP Ricciardi | 20.5 | +9.7 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2003 | 14 | 1.14 | CIN | Ryan Wagner | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Leland Maddox | Jim Bowden | 0.2 | -7.7 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2003 | 15 | 1.15 | CHW | Brian Anderson | OF CF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Doug Laumann | Kenny Williams | 0.0 | -4.4 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2003 | 16 | 1.16 | MIA | Jeff Allison | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | — | Larry Beinfest | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2003 | 17 | 1.17 | BOS | David Murphy | OF LF | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | David Chadd | Theo Epstein | 9.3 | +4.9 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2003 | 18 | 1.18 | CLE | Brad Snyder | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | John Mirabelli | Mark Shapiro | -0.3 | -11.1 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2003 | 19 | 1.19 | ARI | Conor Jackson | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Mike Rizzo | Joe Garagiola | 2.8 | -8.1 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2003 | 20 | 1.20 | WSN | Chad Cordero | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 220 | — | — | Dana Brown | Omar Minaya | 2.6 | -2.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2003 | 21 | 1.21 | MIN | Matt Moses | IF SS | 18 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2003 | 22 | 1.22 | SFG | David Aardsma | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Matt Nerland | Brian Sabean | 1.0 | -4.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2003 | 23 | 1.23 | ANA | Brandon Wood | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | Donny Rowland | Bill Stoneman | -3.0 | -5.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2003 | 24 | 1.24 | LAD | Chad Billingsley | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 240 | — | — | Logan White | Dan Evans | 19.7 | +14.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2003 | 25 | 1.25 | OAK | Brad Sullivan | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 195 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2003 | 26 | 1.26 | OAK | Brian Snyder | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 200 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2003 | 27 | 1.27 | NYY | Eric Duncan | IF 3B | 19 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | — | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2003 | 28 | 1.28 | STL | Daric Barton | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 215 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 7.7 | +4.9 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2003 | 29 | 1.29 | ARI | Carlos Quentin | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 235 | — | — | Mike Rizzo | Joe Garagiola | 10.6 | +6.7 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2003 | 30 | 1.30 | KCR | Mitch Maier | OF CF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Allard Baird | 0.2 | -3.6 | 3.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.