Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1 | 1.1 | MIA | Adrián González | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | — | Dave Dombrowski | 36.4 | -13.4 | 49.9±4.0 |
| 2000 | 2 | 1.2 | MIN | Adam Johnson | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | -0.5 | -18.4 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 2000 | 3 | 1.3 | CHC | Luis Montanez | OF LF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | — | Ed Lynch | -1.5 | -15.7 | 14.3±4.2 |
| 2000 | 4 | 1.4 | KCR | Mike Stodolka | IF 1B | 19 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Terry Wetzel | Herk Robinson | 0.0 | -18.9 | 18.9±3.9 |
| 2000 | 5 | 1.5 | WSN | Justin Wayne | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | Jim Fleming | Jim Beattie | -0.8 | -9.3 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2000 | 6 | 1.6 | TBR | Rocco Baldelli | OF CF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 200 | — | — | Dan Jennings | Chuck Lamar | 8.0 | -0.0 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 2000 | 7 | 1.7 | COL | ✕ Matthew Harrington | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 210 | — | — | Bill Schmidt | Daniel O'Dowd | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 2000 | 8 | 1.8 | DET | Matthew Wheatland | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 215 | — | — | — | Randy Smith | 0.0 | -5.8 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2000 | 9 | 1.9 | SDP | Mark Phillips | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Brad Sloan | Kevin Towers | 0.0 | -5.8 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2000 | 10 | 1.10 | ANA | Joe Torres | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Donny Rowland | Bill Stoneman | 0.0 | -5.8 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2000 | 11 | 1.11 | MIL | Dave Krynzel | OF CF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 185 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Dean Taylor | -0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2000 | 12 | 1.12 | CHW | Joe Borchard | OF RF | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Ron Schueler | -1.4 | -5.7 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2000 | 13 | 1.13 | STL | Shaun Boyd | IF 2B | 19 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 188 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 0.0 | -7.8 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2000 | 14 | 1.14 | BAL | Beau Hale | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 202 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Syd Thrift | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2000 | 15 | 1.15 | PHI | Chase Utley | IF 2B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Mike Arbuckle | Ed Wade | 59.6 | +48.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2000 | 16 | 1.16 | NYM | Billy Traber | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'5" | 205 | — | — | Carmen Fusco | Steve Phillips | 0.9 | -4.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2000 | 17 | 1.17 | LAD | Ben Diggins | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'7" | 230 | — | — | Ed Creech | Kevin Malone | -0.2 | -5.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2000 | 18 | 1.18 | TOR | Miguel Negron | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Gord Ash | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2000 | 19 | 1.19 | PIT | Sean Burnett | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 5'11" | 185 | — | — | Mickey White | Cam Bonifay | 1.2 | -4.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2000 | 20 | 1.20 | ANA | Chris Bootcheck | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 210 | — | — | Donny Rowland | Bill Stoneman | 0.0 | -5.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2000 | 21 | 1.21 | SFG | Boof Bonser | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 245 | — | — | Matt Nerland | Brian Sabean | 3.0 | -2.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2000 | 22 | 1.22 | BOS | Phil Dumatrait | P P | 19 HS | R/L | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Wayne Britton | Dan Duquette | -1.4 | -6.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2000 | 23 | 1.23 | CIN | David Espinosa | OF CF | 19 HS | S/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | De Jon Watson | Jim Bowden | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2000 | 24 | 1.24 | STL | Blake Williams | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 210 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2000 | 25 | 1.25 | TEX | Scott Heard | C C | 19 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Chuck McMichael | Douglas Melvin | 0.0 | -3.6 | 3.6±3.9 |
| 2000 | 26 | 1.26 | CLE | Corey Smith | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | John Mirabelli | John Hart | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2000 | 27 | 1.27 | HOU | Robert Stiehl | P P | 20 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | David Lakey | Gerry Hunsicker | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2000 | 28 | 1.28 | NYY | David Parrish | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Lin Garrett | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -2.0 | 2.0±3.8 |
| 2000 | 29 | 1.29 | ATL | Adam Wainwright | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'7" | 230 | — | — | Roy Clark | John Schuerholz | 36.7 | +34.0 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2000 | 30 | 1.30 | ATL | Scott Thorman | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Roy Clark | John Schuerholz | -1.1 | -3.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.