Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 1 | 1.1 | NYM | Paul Wilson | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 210 | — | — | John Barr | Joe McIlvaine | 8.0 | -11.7 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 1994 | 2 | 1.2 | OAK | Ben Grieve | OF RF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'4" | 225 | — | — | Dick Bogard Jr | Sandy Alderson | 6.7 | -7.6 | 14.3±4.2 |
| 1994 | 3 | 1.3 | SDP | Dustin Hermanson | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | Kevin Towers | Randy Smith | 12.3 | +2.5 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 1994 | 4 | 1.4 | MIL | Antone Williamson | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Ken Califano | Sal Bando | -0.7 | -22.2 | 21.5±4.1 |
| 1994 | 5 | 1.5 | MIA | Josh Booty | IF 3B | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Dave Dombrowski | 0.1 | -18.8 | 18.9±3.7 |
| 1994 | 6 | 1.6 | ANA | McKay Christensen | OF CF | 19 HS | L/L | 5'11" | 180 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Whitey Herzog | -0.4 | -8.4 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 1994 | 7 | 1.7 | COL | Doug Million | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 175 | — | — | Pat Daugherty | Bob Gebhard | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 1994 | 8 | 1.8 | MIN | Todd Walker | IF 2B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 180 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 9.5 | -5.4 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 1994 | 9 | 1.9 | CIN | C.J. Nitkowski | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Julian Mock | Jim Bowden | 0.9 | -7.0 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1994 | 10 | 1.10 | CLE | Jaret Wright | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 245 | — | — | Jay Robertson | John Hart | 11.4 | +5.6 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 1994 | 11 | 1.11 | PIT | Mark Farris | IF IF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 190 | — | — | Paul Tinnell | Ted Simmons | 0.0 | -7.8 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 1994 | 12 | 1.12 | BOS | Nomar Garciaparra | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | — | — | Wayne Britton | Lou Gorman | 41.4 | +30.6 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1994 | 13 | 1.13 | LAD | Paul Konerko | IF 1B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Terry Reynolds | Fred Claire | 18.1 | +10.3 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 1994 | 14 | 1.14 | SEA | Jason Varitek | C C | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'2" | 230 | — | — | — | Woody Woodward | 22.0 | +5.0 | 17.0±4.1 |
| 1994 | 15 | 1.15 | CHC | Jayson Peterson | P P | 19 HS | S/R | 6'4" | 185 | — | — | — | Larry Himes | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1994 | 16 | 1.16 | KCR | Matt Smith | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Art Stewart | Herk Robinson | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1994 | 17 | 1.17 | HOU | Ramon Castro | C C | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 240 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Bob Watson | 3.5 | -0.1 | 3.6±3.9 |
| 1994 | 18 | 1.18 | DET | Cade Gaspar | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 170 | — | — | Jeff Scott | Jerry Walker | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1994 | 19 | 1.19 | STL | Bret Wagner | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 5'11" | 190 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1994 | 20 | 1.20 | NYM | Terrence Long | OF CF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | John Barr | Joe McIlvaine | 4.9 | -3.1 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1994 | 21 | 1.21 | WSN | Hiram Bocachica | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 195 | — | — | Ed Creech | Dan Duquette | -1.4 | -9.4 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1994 | 22 | 1.22 | SFG | LeJon Powell | OF CF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 185 | — | — | Brian Sabean | Bob Quinn | -0.3 | -4.6 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1994 | 23 | 1.23 | PHI | Carlton Loewer | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 210 | — | — | Mike Arbuckle | Lee Thomas | 1.6 | -3.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1994 | 24 | 1.24 | NYY | ✕ Brian Buchanan | OF RF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | — | Gene Michael | 0.0 | -4.4 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1994 | 25 | 1.25 | HOU | Scott Elarton | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'7" | 240 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Bob Watson | 3.0 | -2.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1994 | 26 | 1.26 | CHW | Mark Johnson | C C | 19 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 200 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Ron Schueler | 2.4 | -0.7 | 3.1±3.8 |
| 1994 | 27 | 1.27 | ATL | Jacob Shumate | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 170 | — | — | — | John Schuerholz | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 1994 | 28 | 1.28 | TOR | Kevin Witt | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Bob Engle | Pat Gillick | -1.5 | -4.3 | 2.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.