Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 1 | 1.1 | ANA | Darin Erstad | OF CF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | — | Bill Bavasi | 28.5 | +3.2 | 25.3±4.2 |
| 1995 | 2 | 1.2 | SDP | Ben Davis | C C | 18 HS | S/R | 6'4" | 240 | — | — | Kevin Towers | Randy Smith | 4.1 | -20.4 | 24.4±3.7 |
| 1995 | 3 | 1.3 | SEA | José Cruz Jr. | OF CF | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | — | Woody Woodward | 19.5 | -4.0 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 1995 | 4 | 1.4 | CHC | Kerry Wood | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 210 | — | — | Al Goldis | Ed Lynch | 24.7 | +14.7 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 1995 | 5 | 1.5 | OAK | Ariel Prieto | P P | 26 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 245 | — | — | Grady Fuson | Sandy Alderson | 3.9 | -4.6 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1995 | 6 | 1.6 | MIA | Jaime Jones | OF OF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 229 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Dave Dombrowski | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 1995 | 7 | 1.7 | TEX | Jonathan Johnson | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 180 | — | — | Sandy Johnson | Douglas Melvin | -0.1 | -8.0 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 1995 | 8 | 1.8 | COL | Todd Helton | IF 1B | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Pat Daugherty | Bob Gebhard | 53.1 | +38.2 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 1995 | 9 | 1.9 | MIL | Geoff Jenkins | OF LF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 215 | — | — | Ken Califano | Sal Bando | 24.5 | +16.0 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1995 | 10 | 1.10 | PIT | Chad Hermansen | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Paul Tinnell | Ted Simmons | -2.5 | -10.5 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 1995 | 11 | 1.11 | DET | Mike Drumright | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'4" | 219 | — | — | — | Joe Klein | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1995 | 12 | 1.12 | STL | Matt Morris | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 225 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 30.4 | +22.5 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1995 | 13 | 1.13 | MIN | Mark Redman | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'5" | 245 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 14.5 | +6.7 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1995 | 14 | 1.14 | PHI | Reggie Taylor | OF CF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 180 | — | — | Mike Arbuckle | Lee Thomas | -0.2 | -8.2 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1995 | 15 | 1.15 | BOS | Andrew Yount | OF OF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 180 | — | — | Wayne Britton | Dan Duquette | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1995 | 16 | 1.16 | SFG | Joe Fontenot | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 185 | — | — | Bob Hartsfield | Bob Quinn | -0.1 | -5.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1995 | 17 | 1.17 | TOR | Roy Halladay | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 225 | — | — | — | Gord Ash | 54.2 | +48.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1995 | 18 | 1.18 | NYM | Ryan Jaroncyk | OF OF | 18 HS | S/R | 6'1" | 170 | — | — | John Barr | Joe McIlvaine | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1995 | 19 | 1.19 | KCR | Juan Lebron | OF OF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 195 | — | — | Art Stewart | Herk Robinson | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1995 | 20 | 1.20 | LAD | David Yocum | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 175 | — | — | Terry Reynolds | Fred Claire | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1995 | 21 | 1.21 | BAL | Alvie Shepherd | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'7" | 235 | — | — | Gary Nickels | Roland Hemond | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1995 | 22 | 1.22 | HOU | Tony McKnight | P P | 18 HS | L/R | 6'5" | 205 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Bob Watson | -0.1 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1995 | 23 | 1.23 | CLE | David Miller | OF OF | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 185 | — | — | Jay Robertson | John Hart | 0.0 | -4.4 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1995 | 24 | 1.24 | BOS | Corey Jenkins | OF LF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Wayne Britton | Dan Duquette | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1995 | 25 | 1.25 | CHW | Jeff Liefer | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Ron Schueler | -2.4 | -13.2 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1995 | 26 | 1.26 | ATL | ✕ Chad Hutchinson | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 230 | — | — | — | John Schuerholz | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 1995 | 27 | 1.27 | NYY | Shea Morenz | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | — | Gene Michael | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 1995 | 28 | 1.28 | WSN | Michael Barrett | C C | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 225 | — | — | Ed Creech | Kevin Malone | 5.6 | +2.5 | 3.1±3.8 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.