Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | 1 | 1.1 | DET | Matt Anderson | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 200 | — | — | Greg Smith | Randy Smith | 0.5 | -19.1 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 1997 | 2 | 1.2 | PHI | ✕ J.D. Drew | OF RF | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | Mike Arbuckle | Lee Thomas | 0.0 | -23.5 | 23.5±4.2 |
| 1997 | 3 | 1.3 | ANA | Troy Glaus | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 240 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Bill Bavasi | 34.3 | +12.8 | 21.5±3.9 |
| 1997 | 4 | 1.4 | SFG | Jason Grilli | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 235 | — | — | Bob Hartsfield | Brian Sabean | 3.8 | -6.0 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 1997 | 5 | 1.5 | TOR | Vernon Wells | OF CF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 230 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Gord Ash | 25.3 | +17.3 | 8.0±4.1 |
| 1997 | 6 | 1.6 | NYM | Geoff Goetz | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'0" | 185 | — | — | John Barr | Joe McIlvaine | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 1997 | 7 | 1.7 | KCR | Dan Reichert | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 175 | — | — | Art Stewart | Herk Robinson | 2.2 | -5.7 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 1997 | 8 | 1.8 | PIT | J.J. Davis | OF RF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 250 | — | — | Leland Maddox | Cam Bonifay | -0.9 | -8.9 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 1997 | 9 | 1.9 | MIN | Michael Cuddyer | OF RF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 12.6 | +4.6 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 1997 | 10 | 1.10 | CHC | Jon Garland | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 210 | — | — | Jim Hendry | Ed Lynch | 21.4 | +15.6 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 1997 | 11 | 1.11 | OAK | Chris Enochs | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Grady Fuson | Sandy Alderson | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1997 | 12 | 1.12 | MIA | Aaron Akin | P P | 20 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 196 | — | — | Orrin Freeman | Dave Dombrowski | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1997 | 13 | 1.13 | MIL | Kyle Peterson | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Ken Califano | Sal Bando | 1.6 | -6.3 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1997 | 14 | 1.14 | CIN | Brandon Larson | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Julian Mock | Jim Bowden | -1.3 | -12.1 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1997 | 15 | 1.15 | CHW | Jason Dellaero | IF SS | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Ron Schueler | -0.9 | -11.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1997 | 16 | 1.16 | HOU | Lance Berkman | IF 1B | 21 COLL | S/L | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | David Lakey | Gerry Hunsicker | 56.2 | +45.4 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1997 | 17 | 1.17 | BOS | John Curtice | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 210 | — | — | Wayne Britton | Dan Duquette | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1997 | 18 | 1.18 | COL | Mark Mangum | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 165 | — | — | Pat Daugherty | Bob Gebhard | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1997 | 19 | 1.19 | SEA | Ryan Anderson | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'10" | 215 | — | — | — | Woody Woodward | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1997 | 20 | 1.20 | STL | Adam Kennedy | IF 2B | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 195 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 18.3 | +7.5 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1997 | 21 | 1.21 | OAK | Eric DuBose | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 235 | — | — | Grady Fuson | Sandy Alderson | 0.9 | -4.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1997 | 22 | 1.22 | BAL | Jayson Werth | OF RF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 235 | — | — | Gary Nickels | Pat Gillick | 25.7 | +17.7 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1997 | 23 | 1.23 | WSN | Donnie Bridges | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Ed Creech | Jim Beattie | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1997 | 24 | 1.24 | NYY | ✕ Tyrell Godwin | OF LF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 200 | — | — | Lin Garrett | Bob Watson | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1997 | 25 | 1.25 | LAD | Glenn Davis | IF 1B | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | Terry Reynolds | Fred Claire | 0.0 | -10.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1997 | 26 | 1.26 | BAL | Darnell McDonald | OF RF | 19 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 205 | — | — | Gary Nickels | Pat Gillick | 0.3 | -2.0 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 1997 | 27 | 1.27 | SDP | Kevin Nicholson | IF SS | 21 COLL | S/R | 5'11" | 205 | — | — | Brad Sloan | Kevin Towers | 0.2 | -3.6 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 1997 | 28 | 1.28 | CLE | Tim Drew | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Lee MacPhail IV | John Hart | -0.6 | -3.3 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.