Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | 1 | 1.1 | PIT | Jeff King | IF 3B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 180 | — | — | Elmer Gray | Syd Thrift | 17.0 | -23.2 | 40.2±3.9 |
| 1986 | 2 | 1.2 | CLE | Greg Swindell | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 240 | — | — | — | Joe Klein | 32.3 | +14.5 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 1986 | 3 | 1.3 | SFG | Matt Williams | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 225 | — | — | — | Al Rosen | 44.5 | +23.0 | 21.5±3.9 |
| 1986 | 4 | 1.4 | TEX | Kevin Brown | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Sandy Johnson | Tom Grieve | 65.4 | +55.6 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 1986 | 5 | 1.5 | ATL | Kent Mercker | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Paul Snyder Jr | Bobby Cox | 7.5 | -2.4 | 9.9±3.9 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1.6 | MIL | Gary Sheffield | OF RF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 215 | — | — | — | Harry Dalton | 40.5 | +32.5 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 1986 | 7 | 1.7 | PHI | Brad Brink | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Jack Pastore | Bill Giles | 0.3 | -7.6 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 1986 | 8 | 1.8 | SEA | Pat Lennon | OF LF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | Roger Jongewaard | Dick Balderson | -0.6 | -8.5 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 1986 | 9 | 1.9 | CHC | Derrick May | OF LF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'4" | 225 | — | — | Scott Reid | Dallas Green | 3.1 | -4.9 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 1986 | 10 | 1.10 | MIN | Derek Parks | C C | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | Terry Ryan | Andy MacPhail | -0.5 | -8.2 | 7.7±4.2 |
| 1986 | 11 | 1.11 | SDP | Thomas Howard | OF LF | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | — | Jack McKeon | 2.2 | -2.1 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 1986 | 12 | 1.12 | OAK | Scott Hemond | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | Dick Bogard Jr | Sandy Alderson | 0.9 | -16.1 | 17.0±4.1 |
| 1986 | 13 | 1.13 | HOU | Ryan Bowen | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 185 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Dick Wagner | 0.9 | -4.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1986 | 14 | 1.14 | BOS | ✕ Gregory McMurtry | OF CF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Eddie Kasko | Lou Gorman | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1986 | 15 | 1.15 | WSN | Kevin Dean | OF OF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Murray Cook | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1986 | 16 | 1.16 | ANA | Roberto Hernandez | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 245 | — | — | — | Mike Port | 13.9 | +8.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1986 | 17 | 1.17 | CIN | Scott Scudder | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 185 | — | — | Larry Doughty | Bill Bergesch | 0.6 | -4.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1986 | 18 | 1.18 | DET | Phil Clark | OF LF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 200 | — | — | — | Bill Lajoie | 1.2 | -6.8 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1986 | 19 | 1.19 | LAD | Mike White | OF OF | — | ·/· | — | — | — | — | Ben Wade | Al Campanis | 0.0 | -6.9 | 6.9±3.7 |
| 1986 | 20 | 1.20 | CHW | Grady Hall | P P | 22 COLL | R/L | 6'4" | 200 | — | — | Terry Logan | Ken Harrelson | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1986 | 21 | 1.21 | NYM | Lee May | OF OF | 18 HS | S/R | 6'1" | 170 | — | — | Roland Johnson | Frank Cashen | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1986 | 22 | 1.22 | ANA | Lee Stevens | IF 1B | 19 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 235 | — | — | — | Mike Port | 2.7 | -0.1 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1986 | 23 | 1.23 | STL | Luis Alicea | IF 2B | 21 COLL | S/R | 5'9" | 177 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 10.4 | -0.5 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1986 | 24 | 1.24 | KCR | Anthony Clements | OTH X | — | ·/· | — | — | — | — | — | John Schuerholz | 0.0 | -6.3 | 6.3±3.7 |
| 1986 | 25 | 1.25 | ANA | Terence Carr | OF OF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 167 | — | — | — | Mike Port | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1986 | 26 | 1.26 | TOR | Earl Sanders | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | — | Pat Gillick | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 1986 | 27 | 1.27 | ANA | Mike Fetters | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | — | Mike Port | 4.2 | +1.1 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 1986 | 28 | 1.28 | ANA | Daryl Green | P P | 18 HS | R/R | — | — | — | — | — | Mike Port | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.