Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 1 | 1.1 | PHI | Pat Burrell | OF LF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 235 | — | — | Mike Arbuckle | Ed Wade | 19.0 | -6.3 | 25.3±4.2 |
| 1998 | 2 | 1.2 | OAK | Mark Mulder | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'6" | 215 | — | — | Grady Fuson | Billy Beane | 19.2 | +1.3 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 1998 | 3 | 1.3 | CHC | Corey Patterson | OF CF | 19 HS | L/R | 5'10" | 180 | — | — | Jim Hendry | Ed Lynch | 10.8 | -3.4 | 14.3±4.2 |
| 1998 | 4 | 1.4 | KCR | Jeff Austin | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 185 | — | — | Terry Wetzel | Herk Robinson | -0.4 | -10.2 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 1998 | 5 | 1.5 | STL | J.D. Drew | OF RF | 23 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 46.0 | +22.5 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 1998 | 6 | 1.6 | MIN | Ryan Mills | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'5" | 230 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 1998 | 7 | 1.7 | CIN | Austin Kearns | OF RF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 240 | — | — | De Jon Watson | Jim Bowden | 16.7 | +8.7 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 1998 | 8 | 1.8 | TOR | Felipe López | IF SS | 18 HS | S/R | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | — | Gord Ash | 9.7 | -4.6 | 14.3±3.9 |
| 1998 | 9 | 1.9 | SDP | Sean Burroughs | IF 3B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Brad Sloan | Kevin Towers | 5.1 | -9.1 | 14.3±3.9 |
| 1998 | 10 | 1.10 | TEX | Carlos Pena | IF 1B | 20 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 225 | — | — | Chuck McMichael | Douglas Melvin | 19.5 | +4.6 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 1998 | 11 | 1.11 | WSN | Josh McKinley | C C | 19 HS | S/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | Jim Fleming | Jim Beattie | 0.0 | -3.6 | 3.6±4.1 |
| 1998 | 12 | 1.12 | BOS | Adam Everett | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 180 | — | — | Wayne Britton | Dan Duquette | 9.6 | -1.3 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1998 | 13 | 1.13 | MIL | J.M. Gold | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 229 | — | — | Ken Califano | Sal Bando | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1998 | 14 | 1.14 | DET | Jeff Weaver | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 200 | — | — | Greg Smith | Randy Smith | 24.2 | +16.3 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1998 | 15 | 1.15 | PIT | Clint Johnston | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 214 | — | — | Leland Maddox | Cam Bonifay | 0.0 | -10.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1998 | 16 | 1.16 | CHW | Kip Wells | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 205 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Ron Schueler | 11.5 | +6.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1998 | 17 | 1.17 | HOU | Brad Lidge | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 210 | — | — | David Lakey | Gerry Hunsicker | 11.6 | +6.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1998 | 18 | 1.18 | ANA | Seth Etherton | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Bill Bavasi | -0.3 | -5.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1998 | 19 | 1.19 | SFG | Tony Torcato | OF RF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 210 | — | — | — | Brian Sabean | -0.1 | -8.1 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1998 | 20 | 1.20 | CLE | CC Sabathia | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'6" | 300 | — | — | Lee MacPhail IV | John Hart | 59.0 | +53.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1998 | 21 | 1.21 | NYM | Jason Tyner | OF LF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 180 | — | — | Gary Larocque | Steve Phillips | 1.9 | -2.5 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1998 | 22 | 1.22 | SEA | Matt Thornton | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'6" | 235 | — | — | Frank Mattox | Woody Woodward | 10.0 | +4.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1998 | 23 | 1.23 | LAD | Bubba Crosby | OF CF | 22 COLL | L/L | 5'11" | 195 | — | — | Terry Reynolds | Tommy Lasorda | -1.2 | -5.5 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1998 | 24 | 1.24 | NYY | Andy Brown | OF OF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'6" | 195 | — | — | Lin Garrett | Bob Watson | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1998 | 25 | 1.25 | SFG | Nate Bump | P P | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | — | Brian Sabean | -0.6 | -6.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1998 | 26 | 1.26 | BAL | Richard Elder | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/L | 6'6" | 245 | — | — | Gary Nickels | Pat Gillick | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1998 | 27 | 1.27 | MIA | ✕ Chip Ambres | OF CF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 200 | — | — | Orrin Freeman | Dave Dombrowski | 0.0 | -2.4 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 1998 | 28 | 1.28 | COL | Matt Roney | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 245 | — | — | Pat Daugherty | Bob Gebhard | -0.5 | -3.2 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 1998 | 29 | 1.29 | SFG | Arturo McDowell | OF CF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 175 | — | — | — | Brian Sabean | 0.0 | -2.4 | 2.4±3.7 |
| 1998 | 30 | 1.30 | KCR | Matt Burch | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Terry Wetzel | Herk Robinson | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.