Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | 1 | 1.1 | HOU | Phil Nevin | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Bill Wood | 15.1 | -25.1 | 40.2±3.9 |
| 1992 | 2 | 1.2 | CLE | Paul Shuey | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | — | John Hart | 7.4 | -10.4 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 1992 | 3 | 1.3 | WSN | Billy Wallace | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Kevin Malone | Dan Duquette | 0.0 | -9.8 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 1992 | 4 | 1.4 | BAL | Jeffrey Hammonds | OF RF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 220 | — | — | Gary Nickels | Roland Hemond | 8.3 | -15.2 | 23.5±3.7 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1.5 | CIN | Chad Mottola | OF RF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 230 | — | — | Julian Mock | Bob Quinn | -1.1 | -24.6 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 1992 | 6 | 1.6 | NYY | Derek Jeter | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Bill Livesey | Gene Michael | 55.5 | +36.6 | 18.9±3.9 |
| 1992 | 7 | 1.7 | SFG | Calvin Murray | OF CF | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 190 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Sr | Al Rosen | 1.4 | -22.1 | 23.5±4.1 |
| 1992 | 8 | 1.8 | ANA | Peter Janicki | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Dan O'Brien | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1992 | 9 | 1.9 | NYM | Preston Wilson | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Roland Johnson | Al Harazin | 9.2 | +1.2 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 1992 | 10 | 1.10 | KCR | Michael Tucker | OF RF | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Art Stewart | Herk Robinson | 10.0 | +1.5 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1992 | 11 | 1.11 | CHC | Derek Wallace | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | — | Larry Himes | -0.2 | -8.1 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1992 | 12 | 1.12 | MIL | Ken Felder | OF OF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Al Goldis | Sal Bando | 0.0 | -4.4 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 1992 | 13 | 1.13 | PHI | Chad McConnell | OF OF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | Jay Hankins | Lee Thomas | 0.0 | -4.4 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 1992 | 14 | 1.14 | SEA | Ron Villone | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 245 | — | — | — | Woody Woodward | 4.2 | -3.7 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1992 | 15 | 1.15 | STL | Sean Lowe | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 225 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 1.1 | -6.8 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1992 | 16 | 1.16 | DET | Rick Greene | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 200 | — | — | Joe Klein III | Jerry Walker | -0.1 | -5.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1992 | 17 | 1.17 | KCR | Jim Pittsley | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'7" | 215 | — | — | Art Stewart | Herk Robinson | -0.3 | -5.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1992 | 18 | 1.18 | NYM | Christopher Roberts | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'1" | 185 | — | — | Roland Johnson | Al Harazin | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1992 | 19 | 1.19 | TOR | Shannon Stewart | OF LF | 18 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 210 | — | — | Bob Engle | Pat Gillick | 21.6 | +13.6 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1992 | 20 | 1.20 | OAK | Benji Grigsby | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Dick Bogard Jr | Sandy Alderson | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1992 | 21 | 1.21 | ATL | Jamie Arnold | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 200 | — | — | — | John Schuerholz | 0.2 | -5.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1992 | 22 | 1.22 | TEX | Rick Helling | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 255 | — | — | Sandy Johnson | Tom Grieve | 12.3 | +6.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1992 | 23 | 1.23 | PIT | Jason Kendall | C C | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Larry Doughty | 35.5 | +31.9 | 3.6±3.9 |
| 1992 | 24 | 1.24 | CHW | Eddie Pearson | IF 1B | 18 HS | S/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Ron Schueler | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1992 | 25 | 1.25 | TOR | Todd Steverson | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Bob Engle | Pat Gillick | -0.3 | -4.7 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1992 | 26 | 1.26 | MIN | Dan Serafini | P P | 18 HS | S/L | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Larry Corrigan | Andy MacPhail | 0.1 | -2.6 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 1992 | 27 | 1.27 | COL | John Burke | P P | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | — | Bob Gebhard | -0.3 | -3.3 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 1992 | 28 | 1.28 | MIA | Charles Johnson | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | — | Dave Dombrowski | 25.8 | +23.8 | 2.0±3.8 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.