Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 1 | 1.1 | PIT | Kris Benson | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 205 | — | — | Paul Tinnell | Ted Simmons | 14.3 | -5.3 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 1996 | 2 | 1.2 | MIN | Travis Lee | IF 1B | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 7.0 | -14.5 | 21.5±4.0 |
| 1996 | 3 | 1.3 | STL | Braden Looper | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 225 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 8.4 | -1.4 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 1996 | 4 | 1.4 | TOR | Billy Koch | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Gord Ash | 3.9 | -5.9 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 1996 | 5 | 1.5 | WSN | John Patterson | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 210 | — | — | Ed Creech | Jim Beattie | 5.8 | -4.2 | 9.9±3.9 |
| 1996 | 6 | 1.6 | DET | Seth Greisinger | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 200 | — | — | Jeff Scott | Randy Smith | 1.5 | -6.4 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 1996 | 7 | 1.7 | SFG | Matt White | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 235 | — | — | Bob Hartsfield | Bob Quinn | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 1996 | 8 | 1.8 | MIL | Chad Green | OF OF | 21 COLL | S/R | 5'10" | 200 | — | — | Ken Califano | Sal Bando | 0.0 | -8.5 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1996 | 9 | 1.9 | MIA | Mark Kotsay | OF CF | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 220 | — | — | Orrin Freeman | Dave Dombrowski | 21.9 | +13.5 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1996 | 10 | 1.10 | OAK | Eric Chavez | IF 3B | 19 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 215 | — | — | Grady Fuson | Sandy Alderson | 32.7 | +18.4 | 14.3±3.9 |
| 1996 | 11 | 1.11 | PHI | Adam Eaton | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Mike Arbuckle | Lee Thomas | 12.7 | +7.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1996 | 12 | 1.12 | CHW | Bobby Seay | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 235 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Ron Schueler | 2.7 | -2.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1996 | 13 | 1.13 | NYM | Robert Stratton | OF LF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 250 | — | — | John Barr | Joe McIlvaine | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1996 | 14 | 1.14 | KCR | Dee Brown | OF LF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'0" | 235 | — | — | Art Stewart | Herk Robinson | -4.0 | -12.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1996 | 15 | 1.15 | SDP | Matthew Halloran | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 185 | — | — | Brad Sloan | Kevin Towers | 0.0 | -7.8 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 1996 | 16 | 1.16 | TOR | Joe Lawrence | C C | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Tim Wilken | Gord Ash | -0.9 | -4.5 | 3.6±3.9 |
| 1996 | 17 | 1.17 | CHC | Todd Noel | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 185 | — | — | Jim Hendry | Ed Lynch | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1996 | 18 | 1.18 | TEX | R.A. Dickey | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Lenny Strelitz | Douglas Melvin | 6.5 | +1.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1996 | 19 | 1.19 | HOU | Mark Johnson | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | — | Gerry Hunsicker | -0.1 | -5.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1996 | 20 | 1.20 | NYY | Eric Milton | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 220 | — | — | Lin Garrett | Bob Watson | 17.8 | +12.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1996 | 21 | 1.21 | COL | Jake Westbrook | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Pat Daugherty | Bob Gebhard | 15.9 | +10.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1996 | 22 | 1.22 | SEA | Gil Meche | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | — | Woody Woodward | 15.5 | +10.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1996 | 23 | 1.23 | LAD | Damian Rolls | IF 3B | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Terry Reynolds | Fred Claire | -0.1 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1996 | 24 | 1.24 | TEX | Sam Marsonek | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 225 | — | — | Lenny Strelitz | Douglas Melvin | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1996 | 25 | 1.25 | CIN | John Oliver | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 190 | — | — | Julian Mock | Jim Bowden | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1996 | 26 | 1.26 | BOS | Joshua Garrett | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 210 | — | — | Wayne Britton | Dan Duquette | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 1996 | 27 | 1.27 | ATL | A.J. Zapp | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 190 | — | — | — | John Schuerholz | 0.0 | -2.8 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1996 | 28 | 1.28 | CLE | Daniel Peoples | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 207 | — | — | Jay Robertson | John Hart | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.