Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | 1 | 1.1 | SEA | Ken Griffey Jr. | OF CF | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 230 | — | — | Roger Jongewaard | Dick Balderson | 75.9 | +41.5 | 34.3±4.1 |
| 1987 | 2 | 1.2 | PIT | Mark Merchant | OF OF | 18 HS | S/R | 6'2" | 185 | — | — | Elmer Gray | Syd Thrift | 0.0 | -14.3 | 14.3±4.2 |
| 1987 | 3 | 1.3 | MIN | Willie Banks | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 200 | — | — | Terry Ryan | Andy MacPhail | 4.3 | -5.6 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1.4 | CHC | Mike Harkey | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 220 | — | — | Scott Reid | Dallas Green | 5.1 | -4.7 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1.5 | CHW | Jack McDowell | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 180 | — | — | — | Larry Himes | 33.6 | +25.1 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1987 | 6 | 1.6 | ATL | Derek Lilliquist | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Paul Snyder Jr | Bobby Cox | 3.7 | -4.2 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1.7 | BAL | Chris Myers | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 194 | — | — | Fred Uhlman Sr | Hank Peters | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.8 |
| 1987 | 8 | 1.8 | LAD | Dan Opperman | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 175 | — | — | Ben Wade | Al Campanis | 0.0 | -5.8 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 1987 | 9 | 1.9 | KCR | Kevin Appier | P P | 20 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Art Stewart | John Schuerholz | 50.3 | +42.4 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1987 | 10 | 1.10 | SDP | Kevin Garner | IF 1B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 205 | — | — | — | Jack McKeon | 0.0 | -14.8 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 1987 | 11 | 1.11 | OAK | Lee Tinsley | OF CF | 18 HS | S/R | 5'10" | 185 | — | — | Dick Bogard Jr | Sandy Alderson | 1.4 | -6.6 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1987 | 12 | 1.12 | WSN | Delino DeShields | IF 2B | 18 HS | L/R | 6'1" | 180 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Murray Cook | 24.0 | +16.2 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 1987 | 13 | 1.13 | MIL | Bill Spiers | IF SS | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | — | Harry Dalton | 9.6 | -1.3 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1987 | 14 | 1.14 | STL | Cris Carpenter | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 185 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 1.9 | -6.0 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1987 | 15 | 1.15 | BAL | ✕ Brad Duvall | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 180 | — | — | Fred Uhlman Sr | Hank Peters | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1987 | 16 | 1.16 | SFG | Mike Remlinger | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 215 | — | — | — | Al Rosen | 6.8 | +1.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1987 | 17 | 1.17 | TOR | Alex Sanchez | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 185 | — | — | — | Pat Gillick | -0.2 | -5.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1987 | 18 | 1.18 | CIN | Jack Armstrong | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 215 | — | — | Larry Doughty | Bill Bergesch | 3.6 | -1.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1987 | 19 | 1.19 | TEX | Brian Bohanon | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 250 | — | — | Sandy Johnson | Tom Grieve | 9.3 | +3.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1987 | 20 | 1.20 | DET | ✕ William Henderson | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 175 | — | — | Bill Schudlich | Bill Lajoie | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1987 | 21 | 1.21 | DET | Steve Pegues | OF LF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Bill Schudlich | Bill Lajoie | -0.6 | -8.6 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1987 | 22 | 1.22 | HOU | Craig Biggio | IF 2B | 22 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 185 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Bill Wood | 59.7 | +48.9 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1987 | 23 | 1.23 | TEX | Bill Haselman | C C | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Sandy Johnson | Tom Grieve | 2.5 | +0.5 | 2.0±3.9 |
| 1987 | 24 | 1.24 | NYM | Chris Donnels | IF 3B | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 215 | — | — | Roland Johnson | Frank Cashen | 1.0 | -9.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1987 | 25 | 1.25 | ANA | John Orton | C C | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | — | Mike Port | -0.1 | -2.1 | 2.0±3.9 |
| 1987 | 26 | 1.26 | BOS | Reggie Harris | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 180 | — | — | Eddie Kasko | Lou Gorman | -0.4 | -3.1 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 1987 | 27 | 1.27 | BAL | Pete Harnisch | P P | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'0" | 220 | — | — | Fred Uhlman Sr | Hank Peters | 19.6 | +16.6 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 1987 | 28 | 1.28 | WSN | Tyrone Kingwood | OF CF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'1" | 205 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Murray Cook | 0.0 | -3.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.