Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | 1 | 1.1 | SEA | Alex Rodriguez | IF SS | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 230 | — | — | — | Woody Woodward | 96.9 | +47.1 | 49.9±4.0 |
| 1993 | 2 | 1.2 | LAD | Darren Dreifort | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Terry Reynolds | Fred Claire | 14.0 | -3.8 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 1993 | 3 | 1.3 | ANA | Brian Anderson | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'1" | 190 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Dan O'Brien | 10.3 | +0.5 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 1993 | 4 | 1.4 | PHI | Wayne Gomes | P P | 20 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 225 | — | — | Mike Arbuckle | Lee Thomas | 1.2 | -8.6 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 1993 | 5 | 1.5 | KCR | Jeff Granger | P P | 22 COLL | R/L | 6'4" | 200 | — | — | Art Stewart | Herk Robinson | -0.7 | -9.3 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1.6 | SFG | Steve Soderstrom | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Brian Sabean | Bob Quinn | 0.1 | -7.8 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 1993 | 7 | 1.7 | BOS | Trot Nixon | OF RF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Wayne Britton | Lou Gorman | 22.4 | +14.4 | 8.0±3.9 |
| 1993 | 8 | 1.8 | NYM | Kirk Presley | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 195 | — | — | — | Frank Cashen | 0.0 | -5.8 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 1993 | 9 | 1.9 | DET | Matt Brunson | IF 2B | 19 HS | S/R | 5'10" | 160 | — | — | Joe Klein III | Jerry Walker | 0.0 | -14.3 | 14.3±3.9 |
| 1993 | 10 | 1.10 | CHC | Brooks Kieschnick | P P | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'4" | 250 | — | — | — | Larry Himes | 0.3 | -7.6 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1993 | 11 | 1.11 | CLE | Daron Kirkreit | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'6" | 225 | — | — | Mickey White | John Hart | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1993 | 12 | 1.12 | HOU | Billy Wagner | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 5'10" | 180 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Bill Wood | 21.6 | +13.7 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1993 | 13 | 1.13 | NYY | Matt Drews | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'8" | 230 | — | — | — | Gene Michael | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1993 | 14 | 1.14 | SDP | Derrek Lee | IF 1B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 240 | — | — | Reggie Waller | Joe McIlvaine | 27.0 | +19.2 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 1993 | 15 | 1.15 | TOR | Chris Carpenter | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 230 | — | — | — | Pat Gillick | 24.0 | +18.6 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1993 | 16 | 1.16 | STL | Alan Benes | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 215 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 5.3 | -0.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1993 | 17 | 1.17 | CHW | Scott Christman | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 190 | — | — | Duane Shaffer | Ron Schueler | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1993 | 18 | 1.18 | WSN | Christopher Schwab | OF OF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Kevin Malone | Dan Duquette | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1993 | 19 | 1.19 | BAL | Jay Powell | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | Gary Nickels | Roland Hemond | 3.2 | -2.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1993 | 20 | 1.20 | MIN | Torii Hunter | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 220 | — | — | Larry Corrigan | Terry Ryan | 24.3 | +16.3 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1993 | 21 | 1.21 | MIN | ✕ Jason Varitek | C C | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'2" | 230 | — | — | Larry Corrigan | Terry Ryan | 0.0 | -2.0 | 2.0±3.9 |
| 1993 | 22 | 1.22 | PIT | Charles Peterson | OF OF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 215 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Ted Simmons | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1993 | 23 | 1.23 | MIL | Jeff D'Amico | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'7" | 255 | — | — | Ken Califano | Sal Bando | 7.7 | +2.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1993 | 24 | 1.24 | CHC | Jon Ratliff | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 195 | — | — | — | Larry Himes | 0.0 | -5.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1993 | 25 | 1.25 | OAK | John Wasdin | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Dick Bogard Jr | Sandy Alderson | 2.5 | -2.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1993 | 26 | 1.26 | MIL | Kelly Wunsch | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | Ken Califano | Sal Bando | 1.0 | -2.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 1993 | 27 | 1.27 | MIA | Marc Valdes | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 188 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Dave Dombrowski | 0.4 | -2.6 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 1993 | 28 | 1.28 | COL | Jamey Wright | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'6" | 225 | — | — | — | Bob Gebhard | 9.1 | +6.4 | 2.7±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.