Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 1 | 1.1 | MIN | Joe Mauer | C C | 18 HS | L/R | 6'5" | 225 | — | — | Mike Radcliff | Terry Ryan | 49.8 | +21.6 | 28.2±3.7 |
| 2001 | 2 | 1.2 | CHC | Mark Prior | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 230 | — | — | John Stockstill | Andy MacPhail | 17.3 | -0.6 | 17.9±3.9 |
| 2001 | 3 | 1.3 | TBR | Dewon Brazelton | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | Dan Jennings | Chuck Lamar | -0.8 | -10.6 | 9.8±3.9 |
| 2001 | 4 | 1.4 | PHI | Gavin Floyd | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 245 | — | — | — | Ed Wade | 15.4 | +5.4 | 9.9±4.1 |
| 2001 | 5 | 1.5 | TEX | Mark Teixeira | IF 1B | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Tim Hallgren | Douglas Melvin | 45.0 | +26.1 | 18.9±3.7 |
| 2001 | 6 | 1.6 | WSN | Josh Karp | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 210 | — | — | Jim Fleming | Jim Beattie | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2001 | 7 | 1.7 | BAL | Chris Smith | P P | 22 COLL | L/L | 5'11" | 222 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Syd Thrift | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2001 | 8 | 1.8 | PIT | John Van Benschoten | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | Mickey White | Roy Smith | -0.6 | -8.5 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2001 | 9 | 1.9 | KCR | Colt Griffin | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Allard Baird | 0.0 | -5.8 | 5.8±3.8 |
| 2001 | 10 | 1.10 | HOU | Chris Burke | IF 2B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 195 | — | — | David Lakey | Gerry Hunsicker | 0.8 | -14.0 | 14.8±3.8 |
| 2001 | 11 | 1.11 | DET | Kenny Baugh | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 225 | — | — | — | Randy Smith | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2001 | 12 | 1.12 | MIL | Mike Jones | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Dean Taylor | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2001 | 13 | 1.13 | ANA | Casey Kotchman | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/L | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Donny Rowland | Bill Stoneman | 1.9 | -5.9 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2001 | 14 | 1.14 | SDP | Jake Gautreau | IF 3B | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 195 | — | — | Bill Gayton | Kevin Towers | 0.0 | -10.8 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2001 | 15 | 1.15 | TOR | Gabe Gross | OF RF | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Dave Stewart | 5.5 | +1.1 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 2001 | 16 | 1.16 | CHW | Kris Honel | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 190 | — | — | Doug Laumann | Kenny Williams | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2001 | 17 | 1.17 | CLE | Dan Denham | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | John Mirabelli | John Hart | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2001 | 18 | 1.18 | NYM | Aaron Heilman | P P | 23 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 230 | — | — | Carmen Fusco | Steve Phillips | 3.3 | -2.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2001 | 19 | 1.19 | BAL | Mike Fontenot | IF 2B | 21 COLL | L/R | 5'9" | 165 | — | — | Tony Demacio | Syd Thrift | 4.9 | -6.0 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2001 | 20 | 1.20 | CIN | ✕ Jeremy Sowers | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 180 | — | — | Kasey McKeon | Jim Bowden | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2001 | 21 | 1.21 | SFG | Brad Hennessey | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Matt Nerland | Brian Sabean | 1.2 | -4.2 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2001 | 22 | 1.22 | ARI | Jason Bulger | P P | 23 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 215 | — | — | Mike Rizzo | Joe Garagiola | 0.1 | -5.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2001 | 23 | 1.23 | NYY | John-Ford Griffin | OF RF | 22 COLL | L/L | 6'2" | 215 | — | — | Lin Garrett | Brian Cashman | 0.2 | -4.1 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2001 | 24 | 1.24 | ATL | Macay McBride | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 5'11" | 210 | — | — | Roy Clark | John Schuerholz | 1.0 | -4.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2001 | 25 | 1.25 | OAK | Bobby Crosby | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 210 | — | — | Grady Fuson | Billy Beane | 6.5 | -4.4 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2001 | 26 | 1.26 | OAK | Jeremy Bonderman | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 220 | — | — | Grady Fuson | Billy Beane | 15.5 | +12.9 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2001 | 27 | 1.27 | CLE | ✕ Alan Horne | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 195 | — | — | John Mirabelli | John Hart | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2001 | 28 | 1.28 | STL | Justin Pope | P P | 22 COLL | S/R | 6'0" | 180 | — | — | — | Walt Jocketty | 0.0 | -3.0 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2001 | 29 | 1.29 | ATL | ✕ James Heuser | P P | 17 HS | L/L | 6'5" | 215 | — | — | Roy Clark | John Schuerholz | 0.0 | -2.7 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2001 | 30 | 1.30 | SFG | Noah Lowry | P P | 21 COLL | R/L | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Matt Nerland | Brian Sabean | 7.6 | +4.6 | 3.0±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.