Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1 | 1.1 | NYY | Brien Taylor | P P | 20 COLL | L/L | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Bill Livesey | Gene Michael | 0.0 | -19.6 | 19.6±3.8 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1.2 | ATL | Mike Kelly | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 195 | — | — | — | John Schuerholz | 0.7 | -22.8 | 23.5±4.2 |
| 1991 | 3 | 1.3 | MIN | Dave McCarty | IF 1B | 22 COLL | R/L | 6'5" | 210 | — | — | Terry Ryan | Andy MacPhail | -2.5 | -24.1 | 21.5±3.9 |
| 1991 | 4 | 1.4 | STL | Dmitri Young | IF 1B | 18 HS | S/R | 6'2" | 295 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 11.8 | -7.1 | 18.9±3.9 |
| 1991 | 5 | 1.5 | MIL | ✕ Ken Henderson | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 190 | — | — | Dick Foster | Harry Dalton | 0.0 | -9.9 | 9.9±3.9 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1.6 | HOU | ✕ John Burke | P P | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'4" | 220 | — | — | Dan O'Brien Jr | Bill Wood | 0.0 | -7.9 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 1991 | 7 | 1.7 | KCR | Joe Vitiello | IF 1B | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Art Stewart | Herk Robinson | -0.8 | -15.6 | 14.8±4.0 |
| 1991 | 8 | 1.8 | SDP | Joey Hamilton | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 240 | — | — | Randy Smith | Joe McIlvaine | 16.3 | +8.4 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1991 | 9 | 1.9 | BAL | Mark Smith | OF LF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 235 | — | — | Gary Nickels | Roland Hemond | 0.7 | -7.8 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 1991 | 10 | 1.10 | PHI | Tyler Green | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'5" | 185 | — | — | Jay Hankins | Lee Thomas | 2.0 | -5.9 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 1991 | 11 | 1.11 | SEA | Shawn Estes | P P | 18 HS | R/L | 6'1" | 210 | — | — | — | Woody Woodward | 18.6 | +13.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1991 | 12 | 1.12 | CHC | Doug Glanville | OF CF | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 175 | — | — | — | Jim Frey | 10.0 | +5.6 | 4.4±3.8 |
| 1991 | 13 | 1.13 | CLE | Manny Ramirez | OF LF | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 225 | — | — | — | Hank Peters | 56.0 | +48.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1991 | 14 | 1.14 | WSN | Cliff Floyd | OF LF | 19 HS | L/R | 6'4" | 230 | — | — | Gary Hughes | Dave Dombrowski | 23.6 | +15.6 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1991 | 15 | 1.15 | MIL | Tyrone Hill | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'6" | 215 | — | — | Dick Foster | Harry Dalton | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1991 | 16 | 1.16 | TOR | Shawn Green | OF RF | 19 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 190 | — | — | — | Pat Gillick | 29.9 | +21.9 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1991 | 17 | 1.17 | ANA | Eduardo Perez | IF 1B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 240 | — | — | Bob Fontaine Jr | Mike Port | 1.6 | -9.2 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 1991 | 18 | 1.18 | NYM | Al Shirley | OF OF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Roland Johnson | Frank Cashen | 0.0 | -8.0 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 1991 | 19 | 1.19 | TEX | Benji Gil | IF SS | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 210 | — | — | Sandy Johnson | Tom Grieve | 2.1 | -0.6 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1991 | 20 | 1.20 | CIN | Pokey Reese | IF 2B | 18 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 190 | — | — | Julian Mock | Bob Quinn | 6.6 | +3.9 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 1991 | 21 | 1.21 | STL | Allen Watson | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'1" | 212 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | 5.2 | -0.3 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1991 | 22 | 1.22 | STL | Brian Barber | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'1" | 170 | — | — | — | Dal Maxvill | -0.0 | -5.5 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1991 | 23 | 1.23 | BOS | Aaron Sele | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | Eddie Kasko | Lou Gorman | 29.2 | +23.8 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1991 | 24 | 1.24 | PIT | Jonathan Farrell | OF OF | 20 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 185 | — | — | Jack Zduriencik | Larry Doughty | 0.0 | -4.4 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 1991 | 25 | 1.25 | CHW | Scott Ruffcorn | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 210 | — | — | — | Ron Schueler | -1.0 | -6.4 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 1991 | 26 | 1.26 | OAK | Brent Gates | IF 2B | 21 COLL | S/R | 6'1" | 180 | — | — | Dick Bogard Jr | Sandy Alderson | 3.4 | -0.4 | 3.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.