CHW⇄ANA⇄ARI

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$183.2M net +11.8

received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $53M expected surplus · +$192.0M realized received 3.5 ± 7 expected · 13.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2014 odds 1% → 2% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Adam EatonOF·25y·L/L

+$17.8M+$17.8M± $53M exp surplusrealized +$192.0M 3.5± 7 exp WARrealized 13.7

Prior

#571 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net +$76.0M net +9.4

received +$29.6M+$29.6M ± $33M expected surplus · +$61.6M realized received 4.7 ± 4 expected · 9.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2014 odds 58% → 71% (+13.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler SkaggsP·22y·L/L

+$17.0M+$17.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$52.8M 2.7± 2 exp WARrealized 7.4

Prior

Composite #12.0 pedigree (Baseball America #12 (2013)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.74/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Héctor SantiagoP·26y·R/L

+$12.8M+$12.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 2.0± 4 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

#915 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Kevin Towers net −$259.2M net -21.2

received +$16.0M+$16.0M ± $44M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 6.6 ± 6 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2014 odds 3% → 1% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark Trumbo1B/DH/OF·28y·R/R

+$11.8M+$11.8M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$13.6M 4.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.37/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brandon JacobsLF·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#318 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

A. J. SchugelP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#774 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.