DET⇄MIA

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$35.2M net +44.0

received +$45.6M+$45.6M ± $27M expected surplus · −$16.0M realized received 9.0 ± 3 expected · 48.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2008 odds 2% → 2% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dontrelle WillisP·26y·L/L

+$35.5M+$35.5M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 3.9± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

2.59/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Miguel Cabrera1B/3B·25y·R/R

+$9.8M+$9.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 5.1± 2 exp WARrealized 49.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.9/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

3.37/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$35.2M net -44.0

received +$52.0M+$52.0M ± $89M expected surplus · +$19.2M realized received 12.3 ± 11 expected · 4.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2008 odds 18% → 15% (-3.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cameron MaybinOF·21y·R/R

+$29.1M+$29.1M± $42M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 5.4± 5 exp WARrealized 2.9

Prior

Composite #6.0 pedigree (Baseball America #6 (2008)) → 1.43/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.4/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.97/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Andrew MillerP·23y·L/L

+$20.7M+$20.7M± $58M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 3.2± 7 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

Composite #10.0 pedigree (Baseball America #10 (2007)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.74/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dallas TrahernP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1003 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Burke BadenhopP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

#570 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Frankie De La CruzP·24y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $35M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.9± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mike RabeloC·28y·B/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized -1.3

Prior

#117 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.62 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.