CIN⇄CLE

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$10.4M net +1.2

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $18M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2001 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rob Pugmire

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

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Jim BrowerP·28y·R/R

−$3.2M−$3.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.1± 2 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

#169 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

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CLECLE John Hart net −$10.4M net -1.2

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2001 odds 72% → 69% (-3.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ed TaubenseeC·32y·L/R

−$2.1M−$2.8M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.