WSN⇄SDP

WSNWSN Dan Duquette net +$0.8M net +0.5

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1993 odds 12% → 14% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Denis BoucherP·25y·R/L

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.4/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.29/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Joe McIlvaine net −$0.8M net -0.5

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $38M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.0 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1993 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Austin Manahan3B·23y·R/R

+$15.2M+$15.2M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 4.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#13 overall draft pick → 0.67/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.