SEA⇄WSN

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $42M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 3.9 ± 5 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1993 odds 40% → 40% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave WainhouseP·25y·L/R

+$9.1M+$9.1M± $29M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 2.7± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#19 overall draft pick → 0.56/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.2/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Kevin FosterP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#745 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Dan Duquette net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $45M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.3 ± 6 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1993 odds 14% → 14% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miah BradburyC·25y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#142 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Frank Bolick1B/3B·27y·B/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#227 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.