MIN⇄PHI

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$88.0M net +16.6

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $42M expected surplus · +$78.4M realized received 2.4 ± 5 expected · 18.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2004 odds 30% → 40% (+9.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos SilvaP·25y·R/R

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$31.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 6.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Bobby KoreckyP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#569 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Nick Punto2B/3B/SS·26y·B/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$48.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 11.5

Prior

#614 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ed Wade net −$88.0M net -16.6

received +$11.2M−$0.8M ± $15M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 2.7 ± 2 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2004 odds 53% → 42% (-10.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric MiltonP·28y·L/L

+$11.0M−$0.7M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 2.7± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.34/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.80/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.