TBR⇄ATL

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $42M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Brett Wisely2B·27y·L/R

+$3.5M+$3.5M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ken WaldichukP·28y·L/L

−$2.6M−$2.6M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#165 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.59 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (Baseball America rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Historically these expected values are unbiased and land within ±2 WAR of reality 75% of the time — yet the side the model favors actually comes out ahead only 53% of the time. The grade is a calibrated bet, not a prediction. Why trades are an efficient market →