SFG⇄MIL

SFGSFG Al Rosen net +$21.6M net +5.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 3.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1988 odds 34% → 51% (+16.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ernie Riles3B/SS·27y·L/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 3.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Harry Dalton net −$21.6M net -5.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $17M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · -1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1988 odds 25% → 14% (-10.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeffrey LeonardOF·32y·R/R

+$5.1M+$5.1M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$18.4M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized -1.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.66 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.