ATL⇄PIT

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net −$0.8M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2018 odds 38% → 41% (+2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shane CarleP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#299 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net +$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2018 odds 16% → 14% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.