MIL⇄MIN

MILMIL Dean Taylor net +$14.4M net +2.0

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $29M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 0.8 ± 4 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2003 odds 0% → 0% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Javier ValentínC·27y·B/R

+$0.6M+$0.6M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Matt KinneyP·26y·R/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

#158 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Terry Ryan net −$14.4M net -2.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2003 odds 55% → 46% (-8.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt YeatmanP·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#381 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jerry OakesP·21y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#201 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.