ARI⇄NYY

ARIARI Mike Hazen net +$6.4M net +1.1

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2019 odds 20% → 23% (+3.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim LocastroOF·26y·R/R

+$5.5M+$5.5M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

#385 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$6.4M net -1.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2019 odds 86% → 84% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.