CHC⇄LAD

CHCCHC Jim Frey net +$5.6M net +1.6

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $36M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1991 odds 11% → 11% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José Vizcaíno2B/SS·23y·B/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

Composite #99.0 pedigree (Baseball America #99 (1990)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Fred Claire net −$5.6M net -1.6

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $34M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1991 odds 38% → 38% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Greg Smith2B/SS·24y·B/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#52 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.