SEA⇄DET

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$6.4M net +1.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1990 odds 35% → 43% (+7.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tracy JonesOF·29y·R/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Bill Lajoie net −$6.4M net -1.3

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $18M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 0.8 ± 2 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1990 odds 7% → 5% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Darnell Coles3B/OF·28y·R/R

+$3.6M+$3.6M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.