SEA⇄BOS

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $16M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1996 odds 82% → 82% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff Manto1B/3B·31y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.43/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.51 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$0.8M net -0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $25M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1996 odds 10% → 10% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Arquimedez Pozo2B/3B·22y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

Composite #60.0 pedigree (Baseball America #60 (1994)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.6/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.