CLE⇄HOU

CLECLE Hank Peters net +$464.0M net +40.7

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $42M expected surplus · +$470.4M realized received 2.8 ± 5 expected · 43.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1992 odds 2% → 5% (+3.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kenny LoftonOF·25y·L/L

+$13.6M+$13.6M± $29M exp surplusrealized +$472.0M 2.8± 4 exp WARrealized 43.1

Prior

Composite #28.0 pedigree (Baseball America #28 (1992)) → 0.65/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dave Rohde2B·28y·B/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#120 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.1/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Bill Wood net −$464.0M net -40.7

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $45M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 1.0 ± 6 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1992 odds 13% → 5% (-7.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Willie BlairP·26y·R/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#289 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ed TaubenseeC·23y·L/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

#150 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.