DET⇄ARI⇄NYY

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net +$381.6M net +23.9

received +$110.4M+$110.4M ± $55M expected surplus · +$548.0M realized received 13.9 ± 7 expected · 41.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2010 odds 31% → 53% (+21.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Max ScherzerP·25y·R/R

+$90.3M+$90.3M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$344.8M 8.5± 4 exp WARrealized 22.2

Prior

#11 overall draft pick → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

2.12/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Austin JacksonOF·23y·R/R

+$11.8M+$11.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$200.0M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized 16.5

Prior

Composite #76.0 prospect (Baseball America #76 (2010)) → 0.45/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.45/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Daniel SchlerethP·24y·L/L

+$4.3M+$4.3M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.5± 4 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

#26 overall draft pick → 0.42/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Phil CokeP·27y·L/L

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized 3.5

Prior

#786 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net −$228.8M net -11.5

received +$67.2M+$67.2M ± $43M expected surplus · +$109.6M realized received 5.6 ± 5 expected · 9.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2010 odds 3% → 2% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Edwin JacksonP·26y·R/R

+$68.2M+$68.2M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 5.0± 3 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

2.50/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ian KennedyP·25y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$107.2M 0.6± 4 exp WARrealized 8.5

Prior

Composite #45.0 pedigree (Baseball America #45 (2008)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$152.8M net -12.4

received +$64.0M+$64.0M ± $26M expected surplus · +$164.0M realized received 5.9 ± 3 expected · 16.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2010 odds 91% → 82% (-8.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Curtis GrandersonOF·29y·L/R

+$63.8M+$63.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$164.0M 5.9± 3 exp WARrealized 16.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.3/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

2.95/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.