TEX⇄SEA

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$28.8M net +1.8

received +$64.8M+$44.8M ± $25M expected surplus · +$30.4M realized received 6.0 ± 3 expected · 3.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2010 odds 31% → 49% (+17.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cliff LeeP·31y·L/L

+$61.4M+$41.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$33.6M 5.0± 3 exp WARrealized 3.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.9/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

3.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mark LoweP·27y·L/R

+$3.3M+$3.3M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net −$28.8M net -1.8

received +$52.0M+$52.0M ± $70M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 13.7 ± 9 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2010 odds 1% → 1% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Justin Smoak1B·23y·B/L

+$26.1M+$26.1M± $44M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 7.9± 6 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

Composite #13.0 prospect (Baseball America #13 (2010)) → 1.45/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

1.45/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Blake BeavanP·21y·R/R

+$21.4M+$21.4M± $44M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 3.3± 6 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

#17 overall draft pick → 0.60/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Matt Lawson2B·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#440 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Josh LuekeP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#500 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.