MIL⇄PIT

MILMIL Matt Arnold net +$0.0M net +0.5

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 2 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2023 odds 16% → 17% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bryse WilsonP·25y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#109 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ben Cherington net +$0.0M net -0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2023 odds 2% → 2% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.