WSN⇄BAL

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $23M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1996 odds 14% → 16% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sherman ObandoDH/OF·26y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Pat Gillick net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $28M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.5 ± 4 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1996 odds 37% → 34% (-3.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony TarascoOF·25y·L/R

+$6.9M+$6.9M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.5± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.