TEX⇄STL

TEXTEX John Hart net +$6.4M net +0.5

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $40M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.6 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2003 odds 5% → 5% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rick AsadoorianP·22y·R/R

+$13.4M+$13.4M± $40M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.6± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#17 overall draft pick → 0.60/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net −$6.4M net -0.5

received +$5.6M+$4.0M ± $10M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2003 odds 55% → 52% (-3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Esteban YanP·28y·R/R

+$5.4M+$3.8M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.43/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.